When some pitchers do well, it’s easy enough to ignore. And with some it’s impossible. Roki Sasaki is probably always going to fall into the latter group. Two starts ago, pitching on extra rest, he dialed the velocity and dominated the Yankees.
And then he followed that up with arguably his best start since joining the Dodgers, limiting the Mets to one run over seven innings of work while striking out nine. It wasn’t quite the best start of Sasaki’s career – he struck out 10 in his first start in June, remember – but it was close, and it was a rare start where Sasaki looked like the guy he was supposed to be before joining the majors. Sasaki racked up his nine strikeouts with each of his pitches – five on the splitter, two on the slider, and one each on the slower forkball and his four-seamer. The four-seamer wasn’t quite as hot as in his previous outing, when he averaged a career-high 100.1 mph, but it was close to the best we’ve seen, averaging 98.6 mph, the sixth-highest of his career. And that’s big, because we’ve seen that Sasaki’s fastball really needs elite velocity to overcome the mediocre shape he generates with it. And it only generated two whiffs in this one, so it wasn’t a huge weapon. For that, we look to the splitter, which generated 13 of his whopping 21 swinging strikes.
That pitch has always been dominant for Sasaki, but the extra velocity on the four-seamer helps him generate even more separation on the two pitches and allows the slower one to play up. His slider also continued to fare well, generating four swinging strikes, too. Add it all up, and this was just about the best Sasaki’s overall arsenal has ever looked. Does that mean he’s worth adding in every one of the 35% or so of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is currently available?
I have trouble getting there. I lean “yes,” and I want that to be the answer.
When Sasaki pitches like he did Friday, he looks like an ace. And then you look up and see a 4.71 ERA for the season and an equally mediocre 4.35 expected ERA and you remember just how frustrating he has actually been this season. Remember that 10-strikeout game back in early June?
He followed that up with seven runs in 4.1 innings in his next start and 19 earned runs in 17 innings across his next four starts. It’s been that kind of season for Sasaki, defined by one step forward and usually three or four steps backward. The talent is undeniable, though, and I’m going to keep chasing it. That doesn’t mean every single Fantasy team needs to make room for Sasaki – I understand plenty of you play in the kind of daily lineup leagues where streaming is paramount, and sticking with an inconsistent pitcher like Sasaki in the long run just doesn’t work for you. In your case, you probably don’t need to chase him unless its on a start-by-start basis.
He hasn’t proven to be someone you can rely on every time out. But he could still get there, and in any league where you’re at least occasionally stashing players for upside reasons, there’s no question he has plenty of that. Whether this ends up being the turning point we’ve been waiting for remains to be seen, but I still want to be there when Sasaki does figure it out.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add ahead of Week 19:
Week 19 Waiver Targets Catcher Francisco Alvarez, Mets (50%)
If you lost Shea Langeliers to what looks like a season-ending knee injury, Alvarez is probably your best bet on the waiver-wire to replace him. You could also look at Dalton Rushing (55%), but he hasn’t really looked like a difference-making bat since the start of the season. Alvarez hasn’t been dominant himself, but he is hitting .298/.400/.489 and still has plus pop and has eight homers in 33 games since coming off the IL in early June – a 35-plus homer pace. Alvarez is one of the rare wildly available catchers with legit top-12 upside, and he’s the obvious target if you need a replacement.
Deep league option: Joe Mack, Marlins (23%) – I don’t really have much faith in Mack as much more than a No. 2 catcher for Fantasy – his skill set is still too limited and his swing is too grooved to ever hit for power without sacrificing batting average and contact.
However that tradeoff is working for him right now with five homers in 50 plate appearances in July, including three in his past five games. And the hot streak has lasted even longer than that, as he is hitting .265/.325/.558 with 10 homers in 39 games since the start of June. As long as he’s hot, he’s a viable streamer in one-catcher leagues, but he should just be rostered in all two-catcher leagues by now. First Base Ty France, Padres (29%)
You should be skeptical. And you should be adding Ty France. Both are true.
Yes, it seems extremely unlikely that this will prove sustainable for a 31-year-old who hasn’t been a good hitter at the MLB level since 2022. On the other hand, he’s been very good for long enough this season, and with the underlying metrics to back it up, that I think we should at least treat him as if this hot streak is real when it only costs you some FAB to find out. France has an .894 OPS on the season, and while his underlying numbers don’t quite back it up – he has a .334 xwOBA vs.
a .375 actual mark – he does keep getting better, putting up a .377 xwOBA over his past trips to the plate. With the underlying data as solid as it is, France doesn’t need to be quite as good as his surface-level numbers to be Fantasy relevant.
And if he does keep this level of play up, he’s going to be a difference maker. Worst case scenario, you just drop him if it goes south. Deep league option: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Orioles (16%) – Encarnacion-Strand was, at one point, a pretty exciting prospect, so maybe we’re seeing a little post-hype breakout here. He has three homers and 10 hits in seven games since returning to the majors with the Orioles, and he has done it while striking out just 20% of the time in his first 30 plate appearances. It’s a tiny sample size, and Encarnacion-Strand’s 111 wRC+ at Triple-A this season doesn’t suggest he’s likely to be any kind of impact hitter in the majors. But if you’re in a deep league, why not check in and see if there’s something here? Second Base Gleyber Torres, Tigers (41%)
Torres is a pretty boring option for traditional 5×5 Roto leagues, with minimal power and zero steals in 49 games this season.
He’ll put up a pretty good batting average and get on base enough to help in runs, but that’s about all you’re going to get out of him. But he’s a lot better in a points or OBP format thanks to his sky-high walk rate and solid contact skills, so this one might be pretty league context dependent.
Deep league option: Hao-Yu Lee, Tigers (3%) – Lee is on a nice little heater lately, hitting nearly .400 over his past 10 games while playing pretty regularly for the Tigers. He’s hit a couple of homers with a 94.5 mph average exit velocity in that stretch, and the underlying numbers here suggest there’s a bit more juice than you might think with Lee. He had 16 homers and 22 steals in 140 career games at Triple-A while showing a pretty good approach at the plate, and I think he can at least continue to be useful in some deeper leagues. Third Base Royce Lewis, Twins (56%)
Lewis stole four bases in his past four games after swiping another Sunday and is up to a perfect 10 for 10 on stolen base opportunities on the season, putting him just two steals short of his career high. His overall line since returning from Triple-A is merely decent after a recent slump– .245/.322/.450 – but it comes with a 28-homer, 28-steal pace in 41 games, which is very Fantasy-friendly. Lewis’s bat has certainly slowed down lately, so it’s nice to see him finding ways to contribute anyway.
He remains under-rostered at 56%.
Deep league option: Tommy White, Athletics (16%) – White very much is not the guy you might remember from his time in college, when he was widely known as “Tommy Tanks.” He really hasn’t been that guy in a long time, with just 24 homers in 194 games in the minors – and he hasn’t hit one yet in eight MLB games, either. But he’s making a ton of contact and racking up hits, with a .323/.364/.387 line so far in the majors. I don’t think this is going to end up being an impactful profile, but in deeper leagues he’s showing the contact skills to matter, at least. Shortstop Nasim Nunez, Nationals (46%)
Nunez just keeps getting it done.
Even after going hitless this weekend, Nunez is still hitting .290 since the All-Star break and .322 since the start of June with a walk rate right around 10%. That’s important because, outside of batting average (when he’s hot, at least), Nunez isn’t going to contribute much else beyond stolen bases. He’s on a roughly 60-steal pace in that stretch and has 37 in 97 games on the season. It’s a boring, fairly one-dimensional profile, but the truth of the matter is, shortstop is a position of have’s and have-not’s, and it’s hard to find much of anything here that isn’t already widely rostered.
Deep league option: George Lombard, Yankees (23%) – At least until the next crop of top prospect shortstops gets the call. Lombard is far from the most exciting young shortstop in the high minors, but he is probably the one nearest to getting the call, something that seems likely to happen around the trade deadline.
He’s enjoying a solid season as he pushes for his big-league promotion, hitting .282/.411/.498 with 11 homers and 12 steals in 71 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He has slowed down a bit since getting to Triple-A and I think Lombard might end up a “better-in-real-life-than-Fantasy” kind of player – his value is going to be based on getting on-base and playing a good shortstop – but there’s enough power and speed here, buoyed by a good approach at the plate, that Lombard will be worth getting excited about whenever he does get the call. Outfield Dylan Crews, Nationals (46%)
We’re starting to see some signs of Crews starting to figure it out. He had three hits Sunday, giving him multiple hits in three of his past four and a .333 average with four extra-base hits in eight games since the All-Star break.
He has walked seven times to eight strikeouts in 37 trips to the plate, too, and even has a steal thrown in there for good measure. Crews’ actual production overall still leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s putting together better plate appearances than we’ve ever seen from him in the majors while simultaneously hitting the ball harder than we’ve ever seen. What if this isn’t just a random hot streak?
What if Crews is starting to figure it out?
Steven Kwan, Guardians (65%)
When a player is in their physical prime and has the track record Kwan does, it doesn’t take much success to get me to buy back in. Kwan has been arguably the best hitter among outfielders since the start of July, owning a .414/.507/.534 line in 19 games, so I’m pretty much back in. He has played his way back into the leadoff spot for the Guardians over the past week, too, and has even been stealing bases, with four in July. Kwan’s dramatic fall off over the first three months of the season never quite made a ton of sense to me, so I’ve always assumed he had a good chance of pulling out of it and getting back to being a very productive hitter, and that’s what he’s been.
Cole Carrigg, Rockies (64%)
I have to imagine the Rockies are going to stop being weird about Carrigg’s playing time eventually, and that’s probably the main reason his roster rate remains as low as it is. But I think he’s a good player and I think he’s someone you will more or less want to roster in all leagues and formats once he is true everyday.
He showed us how skilled he is yet again Sunday in homering off a 102-mph pitch from Jacob Misiorowski to end his shutout bid. That was Carrigg’s first homer since July 4, though, and I think power probably isn’t a huge dimension of his game yet (though it could develop as he gets older), so we’d also like to see him running more consistently – he has just three steals in 39 MLB games to date. On the other hand, he’s hitting .287/.360/.519 with the speed to rather easily steal 30 bases, so at some point, he’s going to start making a real impact.
Heriberto Hernandez, Marlins (23%)
Did you realize how hot Hernandez has been lately? Given his roster rate, probably not, but he entered play Sunday hitting .313/.370/.687 since the start of July with a massive 93.6 mph average exit velocity to his name.
He isn’t quite that good, surely, but he is hitting .256/.333/.457 with 24 homers and eight steals in his first 162 MLB games – and he’s done that in 556 plate appearances, a lot less than a full season’s worth. I think Hernandez might just be a good hitter – probably not a great one, though his .364 xwOBA on the season does continue to hint at more upside than you’d think.
Tommy Edman, Dodgers (55%)
Edman is eligible at both second and third base, but at this point, outfield might actually be the weakest position – surely in a five-outfielder league, that’s the case.
So we’ll slot Edman in here as he just continues to be incredibly productive. He had two more hits Sunday to push his season line to .337/.414/.490 with two homers and three steals in 32 games. The batting average (fueled by a .413 BABIP) is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, so we shouldn’t take his production at face value, necessarily.
On the other hand, his .375 xwOBA is quite strong and suggests this isn’t a total fluke. At the very least, he looks like a viable hot-hand play.
Ryan Waldschmidt, Diamondbacks (25%)
Waldschmidt was so bad in his first stint in the majors that we’re still mostly just looking for baby steps right now. And we’re seeing them. He hit his first MLB homer Wednesday and added three more hits this weekend, including two hits and a double Sunday. Waldschmidt is still striking out way too much – 38% of the time since his return to the majors a couple weeks ago – so it’s not quite time for Waldschmidt to be added across the board, or anything.
But he’s talented enough, with a broad enough skill set, that I’m going to take note any time he starts to show signs of figuring out. I still have faith he will.
Starting Pitcher an Seymour, Rays (65%)
Seymour is good. I know he’s been pretty frustrating, with his 4.22 ERA in eight appearances since his return to a starter’s workload (six of them have been starts, two have come after an opener) highlighting how tough it has been to actually trust. But a quick look under the hood tells a much different story, as he has a 3.16 expected ERA thanks to decent quality of contact suppression and excellent strikeout skills – 53 in 42.2 innings, or a 31% rate. The control is pretty good too, so it’s all about surviving the occasional issue with homers. He’s coming off seven strikeouts in six two-run innings this week and continues to flash both a useable floor and significant upside heading into a promising matchup with the Rangers and then a two-start week the following week (which includes a start at Coors Field, but also one in Seattle to make up for it).
Kade Anderson, Mariners (60%)
Anderson’s time is coming. The Mariners are reportedly open to trading either Emerson Hancock or Luis Castillo, which means they aren’t just looking to dump Castillo’s bloated contract; they are looking to streamline and upgrade their rotation.
I take that as a sign they are looking to make room for Anderson, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. The 21-year-old is 9-1 with a 1.27 ERA in 15 starts in his first professional season, which includes five perfect innings with seven strikeouts in his start at Double-A Friday. He’s looked major-league ready for months, and I have to think the trade deadline is going to serve as his coming out party. He’ll be 100% rostered as soon as he makes his MLB debut, and it’s close enough that you might as well just get ahead of it now where he hasn’t been added yet.
Noah Cameron, Royals (67%)
Cameron is starting to flash some real strikeout upside, as Sunday’s eight-strikeout effort was his third with at least seven in his past four starts. Of course, even though he shut the Tigers down for seven innings in that one, he still has a 4.88 ERA in the month of July, so this is still very much a work in progress.
And it’s not one I have a ton of faith in working out for you. But Cameron has had success in the majors before and his stuff looks very effective at missing bats right now – it helps that his velocity was up 1.5 mph across pretty much his entire arsenal in his most recent start. I don’t have much faith in Cameron, but he does get decent matchups against the Twins in his next two starts and could continue to be useful over the next few weeks as a result.
Zach Thornton, Mets (48%)
Just a heads up: Thornton is known as “Zac” Thornton through MLB and the team, it just hasn’t been updated on Fantasy sites yet. The young pitching prospect for the Mets has more than held his own since joining the Mets, putting up a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 innings across his first four MLB starts. We’d like to see him miss more bats than he has been (19.5% strikeout rate), but that was less of an issue in the minors, so the upside might be there. Thornton starts a two-start week with a tougher matchup against the Braves, but then he catches the scuffling Marlins next weekend, which helps make up for it.
Relief Pitcher Grant Taylor, White Sox (51%)
The role isn’t all the way there yet.
He got three saves in four appearances between July 4 and July 19, but then he worked the seventh and eighth innings Wednesday and then worked the seventh with a two-run lead Sunday. The nice thing for Taylor is that the White Sox don’t seem to have anyone else they really trust to close, so Taylor should get plenty of opportunities, even if they do prefer to keep him available for multi-inning situations or other high-leverage opportunities before the ninth inning. That is enough to keep Taylor out of the top 12 among relievers, but it doesn’t keep him from being Fantasy relevant even without the closer role all to himself.
He should be rostered in just about any category-based scoring format.
Luke Weaver, Mets (27%)
With the trade deadline looming a week from Monday, Weaver looks like he could be one of the biggest winners. He’s stuck behind Devin Williams in New York, and the Mets have given no real indication that they are planning to make a switch there. So Weaver’s best path to Fantasy relevance likely lies through a trade, one that is widely expected at this point. There’s no guarantee Weaver would end up somewhere he is closing – a reunion with the Yankees to set up David Bednar wouldn’t be surprising – but if he does, he could be a top-12 closer for Fantasy. If you’re chasing saves, you might as well add him just in case.
