The strengthening El Niño weather pattern could push nearly six million additional people in West and Central Africa into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to a new report released by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). The report, released on August 5, was produced by the WFP as part of its global analysis of the humanitarian impacts of the 2026–2027 El Niño event across vulnerable countries already facing food insecurity. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. It disrupts global weather patterns, often causing droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, and crop failures across different regions of the world. What they are saying
According to the WFP, El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, but its impact is likely to extend throughout 2027 because of disruptions to future planting and harvest cycles. “West and Central Africa are also at risk with food insecurity projected to increase by 12 percent, affecting nearly 6 million additional people,” the report said. The agency warned that drought, flooding, and extreme heat are already threatening livelihoods and increasing the risk of hunger across vulnerable communities.
“El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” said Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director. The agency said early intervention will be critical in reducing the humanitarian impact of the climate event. It is expanding anticipatory response efforts in multiple countries, working with governments and humanitarian partners to prepare communities for floods, droughts, and storms before they intensify. “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods,” Skau said. More insights
El Niño develops when changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions alter rainfall patterns across large parts of the globe. While it originates in the Pacific Ocean, its effects are felt across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and other regions, with countries that depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture often suffering the most severe consequences. Previous El Niño events have had devastating humanitarian impacts.
The 2015–2016 El Niño affected the food security of an estimated 60–100 million people worldwide. WFP’s early analysis now suggests that the 2026–2027 event could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity, increasing the number of acutely food-insecure people across 45 vulnerable countries from about 225 million to 274 million. The report examined countries where El Niño is expected to significantly affect rainfall, temperatures, flooding, and drought conditions.
WFP said countries already grappling with poverty, conflict, economic instability, and repeated climate shocks are likely to experience the most severe impacts. Regions at severe risk
The report shows that the humanitarian impact will vary across regions, with some areas facing particularly sharp increases in hunger.
Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to experience one of the largest deteriorations, with more than 16 million additional people expected to face acute food insecurity. Central America is forecast to record the highest proportional increase among all regions analysed. East and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with more than 18 million additional people projected to experience worsening food insecurity. Many households in southern Africa depend heavily on rain-fed subsistence farming, making them especially vulnerable to drought and erratic rainfall. What you should know
For Nigeria, the warning comes at a time when food insecurity is already worsening, particularly in the conflict-affected northern states.
The WFP recently said it requires $89 million over the next six months to sustain food and nutrition assistance and critical logistics operations in northern Nigeria. The agency estimates that more than 17 million people across the region are already facing acute hunger as insecurity, displacement, and funding constraints continue to undermine food access. Borno State remains one of the most severely affected areas, with over three million people experiencing acute food insecurity, including hundreds of thousands facing severe hunger and thousands living in catastrophic conditions. Humanitarian access has also become increasingly difficult. The number of hard-to-reach locations has expanded significantly due to insecurity, attacks on aid routes, and the proliferation of illegal checkpoints, limiting the ability of relief agencies to reach vulnerable communities.
