Tory leadership hopefuls can stop Boris Johnson becoming PM – but only if they work together

“The Boris operation shows that its biggest weakness is the candidate,” the campaign manager of a rival candidate told me. At first glance, it is an odd argument to make after Boris Johnson’s powerful performance in the first round of the Conservatives’ leadership election. But it’s right.

Johnson has bowed to pressure to take part in next Tuesday’s BBC TV debate with rival candidates, but while claiming he is “very keen” on such events, is still refusing to join Sunday’s Channel 4 debate.

In his first broadcast interview since March, he told Radio 4 this lunchtime he wanted to limit “blue-on-blue action”. He insisted he had done newspaper interviews; in fact, he has done only one since Theresa May announced her departure. He deflected criticism of his record as foreign secretary by pointing to his time as London mayor. In an olive branch to Tory doubters, he promised he would similarly have a “great team” around him in Downing Street. (Subtext: good advisers will stop me messing up).

Johnson should join Sunday’s event. True, both Labour and the Tories have found unconvincing excuses to dodge TV debates in general elections when they had the most to lose as the front-runner. But that doesn’t make it right. We need an independent commission to set the ground rules for compulsory debates at general elections, as Sky News has demanded. Party leadership contests should also be included. Although the government claims such matters are up to the parties, someone has to ensure the public get a view even if they do not get a vote when our prime minister or PM-in-waiting is chosen.

Johnson’s commanding lead has prompted renewed chatter in Tory land that all other candidates should stand aside, since he is sure to win the ballot of party members no matter whom he faces in the run-off. The argument is that Johnson could then start the task of securing a better deal from the EU more quickly. His allies call on “vanity candidates” to step aside.

It would, of course, suit their man nicely to avoid the scrutiny of 16 hustings meetings for Tory members between 22 June and 15 July. (In a leg-up for the front-runner, the postal ballot will start on 6 July, even though the events are still taking place, which seems a bit strange to me).

Many anti-Johnson MPs are convinced he will win, which deters some from coming out publicly for a rival. Their best hope is that Johnson trips himself up in a debate or interview. “It will take something really big to stop him now,” one opponent sighed. “Even the revelation of another affair wouldn’t be enough. It’s priced in.”

To avoid repeating the mistake of Theresa May’s coronation in 2016, Johnson’s five remaining rivals should not join Matt Hancock, who pulled out today. The health secretary, at 40 the youngest runner in the race, fought an energetic campaign and marked himself out as a good bet as the leader after next. Realistic mission accomplished.

Hancock could still have a big influence on the current contest. He cannot guarantee that all 19 MPs who backed him in yesterday’s first ballot will follow him, but his decision on whom to support could propel either Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt or Michael Gove into a run-off against Johnson. If Rory Stewart, a welcome burst of fresh air who has widened the Tory debate, backed the same candidate as Hancock after his likely elimination in Tuesday’s second ballot, that person would have the momentum Johnson’s rivals currently lack.

Hancock, who will weigh up his options over the weekend, sent mixed signals today. He had wanted to be the candidate “for the future”, which would point to Javid, but said the party wanted a leader for “the here and now” and Brexit, which might lead him to Hunt or Gove.

Javid had a slow start but an impressive launch and could still emerge as a contender for second place with Hancock’s help. Team Saj argues that while Johnson would provide a short-term boost, he would not win over the young, professional and ethnic minority voters the Tories desperately need to be a long-term party of power.

A member of Javid’s team has sent every Tory MP a persuasive article by James Kanagasooriam, who previously advised the Scottish Tories, saying: “The demographic groups most likely to be repelled by a Johnson candidacy are the parts of Britain that are growing fastest.” Today, Johnson is probably less popular than the party as a whole among professionals, younger, BAME and urban voters. Kanagasooriam‏ suggests a combination of Javid, Hancock and Stewart could “delve deep into Labour and Liberal Democrat country, offering an alternative path to power”.

After Sunday’s debate, Hunt, Gove and Javid should get together to agree who is best placed to take on Johnson, so they can direct their fire on him rather than each other. There is no time to waste if a credible “anyone but Boris” candidate is to gain traction.