Analysis
Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate.
Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.
