TLDR
The U.S. dollar held near a one-week high ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech
Warsh was set to speak at 1400 GMT on Friday, with markets watching closely for rate signals
Traders are pricing in at least one 25 basis point rate hike this year due to persistent inflation
Bitcoin dipped to $79,715 but is on track for a 26.7% monthly gain, its best since late 2024
The euro and sterling both fell slightly, heading for their first weekly drop in a month
The U.S. dollar held near a one-week high on Friday as traders waited for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. The dollar index sat at 99.18, just below Thursday’s high of 99.26. Markets were largely inactive ahead of the 1400 GMT speech. US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)
Inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target.
That has pushed traders to price in at least one 25 basis point rate hike this year, which has supported the dollar in recent days. Warsh is known for offering little forward guidance. Analysts said he was more likely to give an update on the five internal Fed task forces he set up at the start of his term than to signal a rate move.
Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur raised the idea that the Fed could be considering a different measure of inflation beyond the PCE deflator. He said any hint of that would likely be seen as a dovish signal and could put pressure on the dollar. Other Fed Officials Sound Hawkish
On the sidelines of the Jackson Hole conference Thursday, several Fed officials repeated their concerns about inflation. They signaled they were open to rate hikes. However, many analysts still expect the Fed to hold rates steady through the end of the year.
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ING’s Chris Turner said he does not think the Fed will hike in September or at all, with a year-end dollar/yen forecast around 158. The euro fell slightly to $1.1646 and sterling dropped to $1.3589. Both were on track for their first weekly decline in a month. The yen weakened to 159.645 per dollar. Tokyo inflation data showed annual core prices accelerated in August, a day after the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor called for timely rate hikes. Markets see a 68% chance the Bank of Japan hikes by 25 basis points next month.
Bitcoin Sees Big Monthly Gain
Bitcoin dipped to $79,715 on Friday but remained on track for a 26.7% gain in August, its largest monthly rise since late 2024. Some analysts pointed to concerns about U.S. debt levels as a driver of crypto gains this month. The Australian dollar was headed for a ninth straight week of gains, sitting at a three-month high of $0.7197.
The Canadian dollar was flat but set for its biggest weekly drop since mid-June after trade tensions with the U.S. rose. Markets remained focused on Warsh’s speech as the main event of the day, with rate expectations and currency moves likely to shift once he speaks. Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform. Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
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