SportsLine’s model simulated the British Open 2026 10,000 times and revealed surprising golf picks for Royal Birkdale
Jul 14, 2026
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1:36 pm ET
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The 2026 Open Championship tees off on Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. Rory McIlroy (Masters), Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) were the year’s first three major winners, and they’re all in the 2026 Open Championship field.
Scottie Scheffler is the defending Open Championship winner, while Jordan Spieth won this event the last time it was at Royal Birkdale in 2017. Scheffler is the +700 favorite (risk $100 to win $700) in the latest 2026 Open Championship odds, followed by McIlroy at +850. Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick, both at +1500, are next on the PGA odds board for this event, with Jon Rahm (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2700) the only other golfers going off lower than +3000. Before locking in any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 British Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine. Paramount+ Premium is now included with every SportsLine membership! Watch the NFL on CBS, UFC, select PGA events, Champions League and more than 40,000 episodes and movies. Join right here to get both for one low price.
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SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters — its fifth Masters in a row — as well as last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites .
Now that the 2026 Open Championship field is set, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.
Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard. Visit our DraftKings promo code review to see their latest offers and get started. 2026 Open Championship predictions One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2026: Fleetwood, who is tied for the third-lowest odds on the board at +1500, stumbles and doesn’t finish in the top 5. He’s a golfer to fade in Open Championship best bets.
Fleetwood has a pair of top-5 finishes at the Open Championship, but also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top 10 last year. He finished 27th the last time this event was at the Royal Birkdale. With no finishes better than T11 in any major this year, the model has found better values on the board. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Ludvig Aberg is a top-3 contender on the projected leaderboard despite never having won a major and having longer odds at +3300. This will be just his third British Open appearance, but he finished in the top 25 in this event last year. He’s also been steady at the majors this year, which was highlighted by a T4 finish at the PGA Championship.
He’s one of the best drivers in both distance and accuracy on tour right now, and that quality alone makes him a top contender at Royal Birkdale. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Open Championship picks The model is also targeting several longshots, including one shocking pick who is going off around 50-1. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world?
Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025. 2026 Open Championship odds, field Get full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. (odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +700
Rory McIlroy +850
Tommy Fleetwood +1500
Matt Fitzpatrick +1500
Jon Rahm +2000
Xander Schauffele +2700
Collin Morikawa +3000
Viktor Hovland +3000
Robert MacIntyre +3000
Wyndham Clark +3300
Chris Gotterup +3300
Cameron Young +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Ludvig Åberg +3300
Justin Rose +3300
Russell Henley +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Si Woo Kim +4500
Tom Kim +4500
Sam Burns +4500
Min Woo Lee +5000
Patrick Reed +5000
Justin Thomas +5500
Aaron Rai +6000
Alex Fitzpatrick +6000
Bryson DeChambeau +6000
Patrick Cantlay +6000
Joaquin Niemann +6500
Brooks Koepka +7000
JJ Spaun +7000
Jordan Spieth +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Hideki Matsuyama +8000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Nicolai Højgaard +10000
Harris English +10000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Ryan Gerard +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Corey Conners +12500
Tom McKibbin +12500
Eugenio Chacarra +12500
Victor Perez +12500
Alex Smalley +15000
Bud Cauley +15000
Cameron Smith +15000
Ryan . +15000
Keith Mitchell +15000
J.T. Poston +15000
David Puig +17500
Sepp Straka +17500
Jacob Bridgeman +17500
Jake Knapp +17500
Marco Penge +17500
Jordan Smith +17500
Max Homa +17500
Michael Kim +17500
Casey Jarvis +17500
Nick Taylor +17500
Jason Day +17500
Gary Woodland +17500
Eric Cole +17500
Johnny Keefer +17500
Michael Thorbjornsen +17500
John Parry +22500
Haotong Li +22500
Sahith Theegala +22500
Sam Stevens +22500
Max Greyserman +22500
Angel Ayora +22500
Harry Hall +22500
Matt Mccarty +22500
Sungjae Im +25000
Sami Valimaki +25000
Pierceson Coody +25000
Rasmus Højgaard +25000
Andrew Novak +25000
Lucas Herbert +25000
Laurie Canter +25000
Thomas Detry +25000
Nico Echavarria +25000
Ryo Hisatsune +25000
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +25000
Aldrich Potgieter +25000
Jayden Schaper +35000
Daniel Hillier +35000
Billy Horschel +35000
Jackson Suber +35000
Daniel Berger +35000
Michael Brennan +35000
Bernd Wiesberger +35000
Matthew Jordan +35000
Stewart Cink +35000
Hennie du Plessis +50000
Jesper Svensson +50000
Scott Vincent +50000
Keita Nakajima +50000
Daniel Brown +50000
Andy Sullivan +50000
Francesco Molinari +50000
Shaun Norris +75000
Padraig Harrington +75000
Adrien Saddier +75000
Francesco Laporta +75000
Joe Dean +75000
Peter Uihlein +100000
Alejandro De Castro Piera +100000
Kota Kaneko +100000
Nevill Ruiter +100000
Matthew Southgate +100000
Baard Bjoernevik Skogen +100000
Travis Smyth +100000
Dan Bradbury +100000
Naoyuki Kataoka +100000
MJ Daffue +100000
Marcus Plunkett +100000
Cameron John +100000
Tiger Christensen +100000
Ryutaro Nagano +100000
Jeong Woo Ham +100000
Lev Grinberg +100000
Martin Couvra +100000
Jack Buchanan +100000
Joakim Lagergren +100000
Frederic Lacroix +100000
Stuart Grehan +100000
Matthew Baldwin +100000
Kazuki Higa +100000
Sam Bairstow +100000
Darren Clarke +100000
Fifa Laopakdee +100000
David Duval +100000
Mason Howell +100000
Ren Yonezawa +100000
Jiho Yang +100000
James Nicholas +100000
Michael Hollick +100000
David Howard +100000
Mateo Pulcini +100000
Kazuma Kobori +100000
Henrik Stenson +100000
Tim Wiedemeyer +100000
Jack McDonald +100000
Antoine Rozner +100000
Caleb Surratt +100000
Alistair Docherty +100000
Jose Luis Ballester +100000
Austen Truslow +100000
Tom Sloman +100000
