Analysts from TD Securities see the USD/CAD pair moving to the upside and they have an idea of buying the pair at levels near src.3300 with a target at src.3500 and a stop-loss at src.3src80.
“The debt party that has supported the last two major expansions is over and the CAD will need to act as a relief valve for the macro imbalances that exist in the household sector as rates push higher. We project a record rise in household debt servicing ratios by year-end. That should prevent the BOC from keeping up with the Fed. Our estimate of the Fed’s terminal rate is well above 4%.
“We believe the BOC has neared theirs. We expect Canada’s debt problem and higher rates to kick off a data domino into Q4. There is nothing to like about the CAD at this time; it is the worst-ranked currency on our scorecard with almost all macro drivers leaning in the negative.”
“With global PMIs weakening, it will be difficult for the CAD to rally. We are also wary that a ‘Volcker’ kind of messaging emerges at the Fed, hampering the CAD. Key USDCAD support in src.3200/src.3230 as it marks a break of triple top.”
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