Home WORLD NEWS Three West Virginia House members may have to fight each other for only two seats

Three West Virginia House members may have to fight each other for only two seats

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West Virginia’s three House members, all Republicans, could soon find themselves in a game of political musical chairs, with only two returning to Congress in 2023.

The Mountain State’s population dropped by 3.2% over the past decade, by far the biggest dip in the nation. As a result, West Virginia’s representation in the House will lose one of its House seats for the 2022 campaign and over the next decade.

But none of its three House members, Reps. Carol Miller, Alex Mooney, and David McKinley have announced retirement plans. That could set up a Republican-on-Republican fight to stay in Washington, though the trio is trying to play down intraparty tensions.

“At this time, we all plan to seek re-election to Congress. Once the West Virginia State Legislature meets in the fall and redraws the congressional maps, we will consider the issue again at that time,” the three members said in a statement shared with the Washington Examiner.

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But if an accommodation can’t be reached, it’s unclear who may be the weakest link in the delegation.

Miller, elected in 2018 to represent the 3rd Congressional District, neighboring southern Virginia and Kentucky, has the best chance at saving her seat, said Steven Adams, a longtime West Virginia state government reporter and columnist for the Ogden Newspapers.

“Carol Miller is probably the safest out of all three,” Adams told the Washington Examiner. “Most of the experts I’ve talked to believe that if there’s a divide, it’s going to be horizontal versus from the bottom to the top of the state. And under that scenario, Carol Miller should be perfectly fine.”

But Miller also faces the test of name recognition, said West Virginia broadcaster Hoppy Kercheval, noting that she is likely the least known of the three representatives.

That said, Miller, 70, also won her reelection easily in 2020, taking 70% of the votes against her Democratic challenger.

McKinley, 74, who took office in 2011, has the longest tenure in Congress, though Mooney, 50, may be able to make a play for his voting record, which is among the most conservative in a range of voting scores.

That could be important for obtaining votes in West Virginia, a state that in 2020 gave then-President Donald Trump his second-best result, after Wyoming. Trump beat President Joe Biden in West Virginia, about 68% to 29%.

“[Mooney] is a very conservative Republican. He’s a check-the-box Republican, maybe more so than the other two,” Kercheval told the Washington Examiner.

The rise of Republicans

West Virginia was long considered Democratic territory since the 1932 election that went to former President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

It wasn’t until 2000 that voters broke its blue streak to go for George W. Bush, the first nonincumbent Republican to win the state since 1928.

Fast-forward 80 years in 2021, and Republican voter registration also overtook Democratic registration in the state for the first time since the 1930s.

Part of the GOP success has to do with strong campaign efforts spearheaded by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, who helped recruit the right candidates, fundraised extensively, and bolstered the party in the state, Kercheval said.

A political realignment in parts of the national Democratic Party has also swayed some voters to the right.

“The national Democratic Party shifted farther to the left, and West Virginia is a very conservative state,” Kercheval said.

A fight over the state’s coal industry has also unified the state electorate, particularly as Democrats seek to transition the coal and natural gas industries into solar and wind energies to mitigate the threats of climate change.

In 2019, West Virginia was the country’s largest coal producer behind Wyoming, according to the government’s Energy Information Administration.

“Coal is very much in the identity of the state,” Adams said. “And it’s a weird time right now, particularly with President Joe Biden, who has made his goal of trying to cut greenhouse gas emissions by around 52% of 2005 levels by 2030.”

Currently, Sen. Joe Manchin, considered the most centrist Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, remains the only Democrat to hold a statewide or federal office.

A depleting delegation

In data released by the Census Bureau in April, West Virginia saw the largest population decline in the country, losing 3.2% of its residents.

Since 1960, West Virginia has suffered a shrinking congressional delegation, despite having once held six House seats. Since the 1990s, the state has had about three seats.

GOP Gov. Jim Justice and other state officials have sought to offer incentives for people to stay in the state, expanding its tourism industry and working to expand its broadband access.

The pandemic has also given West Virginia an opportunity to showcase itself as a scenic and low-cost destination for remote work.

Adams said the exodus of people, especially younger generations, has been largely economically driven, but it may also partially be because they differ from the growing politics of the state.

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“Younger people tend to be a little more left of center, and their beliefs don’t really align with the way the state is going politically,” Adams said. “We’ve been very hurt by population loss, but I know that state officials are working really hard to try to reverse that.”

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Tags: News, West Virginia, Census, House GOP, Congress, 2022 Elections

Original Author: Mica Soellner

Original Location: Three West Virginia House members may have to fight each other for only two seats

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