California is now the second US state to top 1 million Covid-19 cases
From CNN’s Christina Maxouris
California just became the second state to surpass 1 million Covid-19 infections since the start of the pandemic — closely following Texas, which hit the grim milestone earlier this week.
More than 5,000 new cases and 18 new deaths have been reported so far on Thursday, for a total of 1,000,631 confirmed cases and 18,126 deaths statewide, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Like most other states in the country, health officials are reporting that California’s Covid-19 numbers are trending in the wrong direction.
An influential Covid-19 model projects the US death toll could reach 439,000 by March 1
From CNN Health’s Shelby Lin Erdman
An influential Covid-19 model is projecting that 438,941 people will have died from Covid-19 by March 1, 2021.
The projection is from the the team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. They said the new figure accounts for a reduced infection fatality rate.
This is the first time the model has made projections as far out as March 1.
“In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, we expect daily deaths to reach 2,200 in mid-January and slowly decline to 1,750 on March 1,” the IHME says in its latest projection.
The model predicts 36 states will see “extreme or high stress” on hospital beds by mid-December through February, with extreme stress meaning 20% of beds are filled by Covid-19 patients and high stress reflecting 10% to 19% are occupied by Covid-19 patients. This could lead to a reduction in elective surgeries, similar to what happened last spring, the IHME said.
The death toll could hit a staggering 587,000 by March 1, the IHME said if states relax social distancing measures and mask mandates.
What about a vaccine: A potential coronavirus vaccine, which could be available to some populations by next month, has not yet been factored into the model.
Dr. Chris Murray said his group plans to build the Pfizer vaccine into the model in the next couple of weeks — as well as any other vaccines that might be ready for emergency use authorization.
“We don’t think the timing of the vaccine is really going to change the story between now and March 1,” Murray told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Thursday night.
“Some health care workers will get the vaccine, but there won’t be in the numbers to reach the general public to really change the course of this surge.”
US surpasses record Covid-19 hospitalizations for the third consecutive day
From CNN’s Haley Brink
The United States currently has more people hospitalized with Covid-19 than ever before, according to the Covid Tracking Project (CTP).
There were 67,096 people in hospital on Thursday across the entire United States, according to the CTP. This is now the third consecutive day that that nation has topped 60,000 current hospitalizations.
Last Thursday, the US reported 53,322 current hospitalizations.
Eighteen states and one US territory reported record high Covid-19 hospitalizations Thursday, according to the CTP.
Those states are: Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming and Puerto Rico.
Record high hospitalizations are expected to continue as new Covid-19 cases continue to skyrocket.
The economy as we knew it might be over, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says
From CNN Business’ Anneken Tappe
The Covid-19 pandemic brought the US economy to a screeching halt, and while it has started its long road to recovery, the economy we knew is probably a thing of the past, said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.
“We’re recovering, but to a different economy,” Powell said during a virtual panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking.
The pandemic has accelerated existing trends in the economy and society, including the increasing use of technology, telework and automation, he said. This will have lasting effects on how people live and work.
While technological advances are generally positive for societies over the long term, Powell said, on a short-term basis they create disruption, and as the market adjusts to the new normal the pain isn’t shared evenly.
For example, it’s likely that lower-paid workers, as well as those in jobs requiring face-to-face interactions, such as retail or restaurant workers, will shoulder most of the burden of this shift. These groups, heavily skewed towards women and minorities, have already been among those most affected by pandemic layoffs, Powell said.
The post-pandemic economy is also at risk of being less productive: women have been forced to quit their jobs due to child care responsibilities during the crisis, and children aren’t getting the education they deserve, Powell said.
Read more of Powell’s remarks here:
Chicago issues stay at home advisory as cases rise in the city
From CNN’s Omar Jimenez, Brad Parks and Kay Jones
Chicago has issued a stay-at-home advisory, as Covid-19 cases continue to rise throughout the city.
According to a release announcing the advisory, residents are encouraged to stay at home, only leaving for school or work and for essential needs. That includes seeking medical care, grocery shopping, going to the pharmacy, and picking up food.
The advisory goes into effect on Monday, November 16 and will remain in place for 30 days.
Residents are also “strongly advised” to not have guests in their homes outside of essential workers like home healthcare providers or childcare workers, cancel traditional Thanksgiving celebrations and to avoid travel.
Chicago has 122,712 total cases since the start of the pandemic, according to the dashboard. The most recent 7-day positivity rate is now at 14.1%, up from 10.9% the previous week.
These numbers were released by the Chicago Department of Public Health and may not line up exactly in real time with CNN’s database drawn from Johns Hopkins University and the Covid Tracking Project
One in four deaths in France are due to Covid-19
From Eva Tapiero in Paris
French Prime Minister Jean Castex says one in four deaths currently happening in the country are caused by Covid-19.
“Today in France one in four deaths is due to the virus” Castex said on Thursday. “France is facing an extremely strong second epidemic wave,” he added. Over the past week between 400 and 500 people have died every day, he said.
“It would be irresponsible to lift or lighten lockdown now,” Castex continued. “We have decided to keep the rules unchanged for at least the next 15 days.”
“For a week now, we have noted a drop in the number of positive cases,” the Prime Minister said about the numbers. “If that trend is confirmed, the peak of the second wave could be reached at the beginning of next week.”
He added that measures could be eased starting December 1st, emphasizing that those measures would be limited to reopening some shops, and would exclude the reopening of bars and restaurants. “If that trend [of lower numbers] doesn’t confirm next week, we will take further action.” he added.
Commenting on the increased pressure on the hospital system, Castex said 4,803 patients were currently in intensive care, which is “95% of our usual capacity.”
CDC projects up to 282,000 US Covid-19 deaths by December 5
From CNN Health’s Ben Tinker
An ensemble forecast published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects there will be 260,000 to 282,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by December 5.
What it means: Unlike some individual models, the CDC’s ensemble forecast only offers projections a few weeks into the future. The previous ensemble forecast, published November 5, projected up to 266,000 coronavirus deaths by November 28.
At least 242,557 people have already died from Covid-19 in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
CNN is tracking the spread of US coronavirus cases here:
