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Steve Barclay and EU’s Michel Barnier meet in Brussels after ‘breakthrough’

Steve Barclay and EU’s Michel Barnier meet in Brussels after ‘breakthrough’

brexit countdown_bgCreated with Sketch.Boris Johnson insisted there is a ‘way forward’ on Brexit today as he hailed a dramatic breakthrough in talks  EU ambassadors have given Michel Barnier the green light for negotiations to go into the so-called ‘tunnel’. That means the principles are in place, and work is moving to the intensive phase – when both sides bunker down to try to thrash out details. Speaking on a visit to a school this afternoon, Mr Johnson said the new blueprint – which has been kept determinedly under wraps – would mean the ‘whole of the UK takes full advantage of Brexit’.But he dodged when pressed on whether Northern Ireland will definitely leave the EU’s customs union, saying people should simply ‘look at what I have said before and draw their own conclusions’. ‘I think it would be wrong of me to give a running commentary on the negotiations,’ Mr Johnson said. There is speculation the proposals might try to give Northern Ireland the ‘best of both worlds’ – staying within both the UK and EU customs unions. The model is thought to be based on an idea previously floated when Theresa May was PM, and could see EU tariffs applied on goods going from mainland Britain to the island of Ireland – but rebates given to businesses in the north as if they were in the UK customs jurisdiction. That could potentially do away with the need for border infrastructure on the island. However, some doubt it will end up being acceptable to the DUP as there would be an administrative border in the Irish Sea. Mr Johnson’s fragile political coalition appears to be holding together so far, with the unionists notably avoiding public criticism. DUP leader Arlene Foster said this evening that to ‘secure a sensible deal’ the EU must give a ‘clear acceptance that the economic and constitutional integrity of the whole of the UK will have to be respected’.  Earlier, Mr Barnier said a two-hour meeting with Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay this morning had been ‘constructive’. He added inscrutably: ‘Brexit is like climbing a big mountain. We need vigilance, determination and patience.’An EU commission spokeswoman said: ‘If there is a will, there is a way.’  EU council president Donald Tusk hailed ‘positive signs’ in the discussions, but warned ‘time has practically run out’.  Boris Johnson was visiting a school in Beaconsfield today (pictured) as the drama unfolded Mr Johnson relaxed by doing some painting with schoolchildren on the visit to Beaconsfield this afternoon Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and Michel Barnier were all smiles today as they met for crucial talks as the sides make one last push for a deal Mr Barclay (left) and Mr Barnier held discussions for around two hours amid renewed optimism that a deal is possible EU council president Donald Tusk (pictured in Cyprus today) hailed ‘positive signs’ in the discussions, but warned ‘time has practically run out’The new optimism was sparked when Boris Johnson and Mr Varadkar holed up in a Merseyside wedding venue yesterday.They emerged claiming they could see the ‘path to a deal’, with Mr Varadkar adding that it was still possible for the UK to leave the bloc by Mr Johnson’s ‘do or die’ deadline of October 31. What happens next in the Brexit crisis?  Here is how the coming weeks could pan out:  Today: Michel Barnier and Steve Barclay met in Brussels. They have agreed that negotiations can go into ‘the tunnel’.That is the intensive, secret phase of talks where the teams have settled the main issues in principle and are trying to thrash out a joint legal text based.Sunday: Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron are due to meet in France. The dinner will be a key waypointer to whether a deal will be possible next week. Monday: Parliament is due to return for the Queen’s Speech. In Brussels, the EU will ‘take stock’ with Mr Barnier over whether the legal text meets their criteria and can be put before leaders for approval. October 17-18: A crunch EU summit in Brussels. Any deal could be signed off by leaders here. If the talks have broken down, expect Boris Johnson to either boycott the event, or stage a dramatic walkout.October 19: Parliament will sit on Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War. If there is no Brexit deal by this date Remainer legislation obliges the PM to beg the EU for an extension to avoid No Deal. Mr Johnson is likely to force a vote to make MPs ‘own’ any delay, having said he would rather ‘die in a ditch’ than accept one.If there is a deal in place, there will be a make-or-break vote on whether to back it. If passed by the Commons, the government will start rushing legislation through Parliament immediately.  Monday: Jeremy Corbyn has said that he will let Mr Johnson trigger an election after an extension has been secured. This would probably be the first day when a motion can be brought to a vote under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, or a confidence vote can be held.October 31: The current deadline for the UK to leave the EU, which Mr Johnson has previously described as ‘do or die’. Thursday, November 28: An election looks inevitable whichever way the Brexit drama goes. Legally there must be 25 working days between Parliament being dissolved and the election date.This looks to be the most likely date for a poll, given they are traditionally held on Thursdays.   The shape of the new blueprint is far from clear, with both sides insisting they have not given up on red lines.   Speaking before the session broke up, Mr Tusk said he had received ‘promising signals’ from the Irish.’A week ago I told PM Johnson that if there was no such proposal by today, I would announce publicly that there are no more chances – because of objective reasons – for a deal during the incoming European Council,’ he said on a visit to Cyprus.’However, yesterday when the Irish Taoiseach and the UK Prime Minister met they both saw – for the first time – a pathway to a deal.’I have received promising signals from the Taoiseach that a deal is still possible. ‘Of course there is no guarantee of success and the time is practically up, but even the slightest chance must be used.’  France’s European affairs minister, Amelie de Montchalin sounded a note of caution, saying she still believes No Deal ‘is probable, at this stage’.In an interview with France Inter radio this morning, Ms de Montchalin also suggested there was little reason to grant an extension beyond October 31.’I have a fundamental question: why give more time? If it is time for the sake of time? It has taken one year, even three years, and we don’t really get it,’ she said.A commission spokeswoman said this afternoon: ‘The EU and the UK have agreed to intensify discussions over the coming days.’The EU’s position remains the same: there must be a legally operative solution in the Withdrawal Agreement that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland, protects the all-island economy and the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement in all its dimensions, and safeguards the integrity of the Single Market. ‘The Commission will take stock with the European Parliament and Member States again on Monday in view of preparing the General Affairs Council (Article 50) on Tuesday morning.’ Although he was positive after the talks yesterday, Mr Varadkar did warn that negotiations on a deal could yet collapse, saying: ‘There’s many a slip between cup and lip and lots of things that are not in my control.’ The summit, at Thornton Manor in Cheshire, was attended by only the PM’s most senior officials, including chief adviser Dominic Cummings and Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill. At one point, the two leaders even took a walk in the grounds as they strove to find a way through the impasse.When they emerged, they issued a statement, hailing a ‘detailed and constructive’ discussion, and saying: ‘Both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody’s interest. They agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal.’ Michael Gove described the talks as ‘very encouraging’, adding: ‘I hope the optimistic and constructive approach that both sides showed can result in more progress.’  Could the new plan give Ulster the ‘best of both worlds’?  The shape of the new blueprint is far from clear, with both sides insisting they have not given up on red lines. But there is speculation the plan might try to give Northern Ireland the ‘best of both worlds’ – staying within the UK and EU customs unions. This model would be based on an idea previously floated when Theresa May was PM.It could see EU tariffs apply on goods going from mainland Britain to the island of Ireland – but rebates given to businesses in the north as if they were in the UK customs jurisdiction.That could potentially do away with the need for border infrastructure on the island, while maintaining the principle that the UK stay intact.However, there are doubts it will end up being acceptable to the DUP as there would be an administrative border in the Irish Sea.  Mr Varadkar and UK officials voiced hopes that Mr Barnier would agree to take the negotiations into the ‘tunnel’, but there were fears the Frenchman would refuse to countenance anything that might dilute the single market.In another warning sign, Eurosceptic MPs have warned that Mr Johnson would face defeat at Westminster if he offered any further significant concessions. No10 selected 19th-century Thornton Manor – now a luxury wedding venue – as a ‘neutral’ venue for the negotiations and tried to cloak the talks in secrecy.Mr Varadkar has been the most hardline supporter of the so-called Irish backstop, which Mr Johnson has pledged to scrap.But with the UK and the EU potentially just three weeks from a damaging No Deal, the two men appeared to set aside their previous positions in an attempt to find a compromise.To the surprise of aides, the two leaders banished officials for almost two hours as they talked through potential ideas – and held frank talks on what would be acceptable to their parliaments and voters. Speaking after the meeting, Mr Varadkar struck a remarkably upbeat tone, describing the talks as ‘very promising’.’I think it is possible for us to come to an agreement, to have a treaty agreed, to allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion and to have that done by the end of October,’ he added.Mr Varadkar added: ‘In terms of concessions, I don’t think this should be seen in the context of who’s making concessions or who the winners or losers are.’ The Taoiseach insisted the new plan would meet Ireland’s key objective that there would be ‘no customs border’ between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Mr Varadkar (pictured right with Mr Johnson yesterday) said there was now potential for the negotiations to enter the ‘tunnel’ – an intensive phase where details are hammered out After three hours of talks at a country manor on the Wirral, the Prime Minister and his Irish counterpart said they could see a ‘pathway to a possible deal’ What is the Irish backstop and why is it so divisive? The so-called Irish border backstop is one of the most controversial parts of the existing Brexit deal. This is what it means: What is the backstop? The backstop was invented to meet promises to keep open the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland even if there is no comprehensive UK-EU trade deal.The divorce deal says it will kick in automatically at the end of the Brexit transition period if that agreement is not in place.It effectively keeps the UK in a customs union with the EU, and Northern Ireland in both the customs union and single market.This means many EU laws will keep being imposed on the UK, restricting its ability to do its own trade deals. It also means regulatory checks on some goods crossing the Irish Sea. Why have Ireland and the EU demanded it? Because the UK is leaving the customs union and single market, the EU said it needed guarantees that people and goods circulating inside its border – in this case in Ireland – met its rules.This is covered by the Brexit transition, which effectively maintains the status quo, and can in theory be done in the comprehensive EU-UK trade deal.But the EU said there had to be a backstop to cover what happens in any gap between the transition and final deal.  Why do critics hate it? Because Britain cannot decide when to leave the backstop. Getting out – even if there is a trade deal – can only happen if both sides agree and Brexiteers fear the EU will unreasonably demand the backstop continues so EU law continues to apply in Northern Ireland.  Northern Ireland MPs also hate the regulatory border in the Irish Sea, insisting it unreasonably carves up the United Kingdom.   What are the UK’s new proposals?The latest blueprint being floated would not be the same as a previous Northern Ireland-only backstop floated by Brussels, which was dismissed by Theresa May as something no British PM could accept.That would have involved the province staying within the EU’s tax jurisdiction.Instead, the idea is thought to be a much looser alignment of agricultural and food regulations with Ireland. That could help avoid many checks on the border, but it is far from clear it would be acceptable either to the EU or the DUP.

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