McConnell seeks to divide and conquer Democrats | TheHill – The Hill

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMaher goes after Manchin: ‘Most powerful Republican in the Senate’ Supreme Court confounding its partisan critics Why the Democrats need Joe Manchin MORE (R-Ky.) is looking to split President BidenJoe BidenEx-Biden adviser says Birx told him she hoped election turned out ‘a certain way’ Cheney rips Arizona election audit: ‘It is an effort to subvert democracy’ News leaders deal with the post-Trump era MORE from his progressive base by expressing an openness to a possible bipartisan infrastructure deal that is much smaller than Biden’s preferred plan.

Liberal lawmakers also want a bigger package, and they distrust McConnell, who they think may be aiming to string Democrats and Biden along with signals of support for a bipartisan deal crafted by 10 senators.

Yet it is difficult for Biden to stiff-arm the deal, since he has been making a serious effort to reach a bipartisan consensus on infrastructure while pivoting a gridlocked Washington from the Trump era.

Senate Republican aides say McConnell is daring Biden to split with progressives who want to shut down the bipartisan talks and pile as much of Biden’s $4.1 trillion spending agenda as possible into a budget reconciliation package, which under complicated Senate rules could bypass a filibuster and avoid the need for GOP support — if Democrats stick together.

One Republican aide who requested anonymity to discuss strategy said McConnell’s “posture all along has been he’s willing to work with Biden if he’s moderate.”

“The question is whether Democrats are willing to swallow that and that’s unclear at this point,” the GOP aide added.

The source predicted that Senate Democrats will “either coalesce” or liberals led by Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSocially-distanced ‘action figure’ photo of G7 leaders goes viral Progressives want to tighten screws beyond Manchin and Sinema Overnight Energy: Biden seeks to reassert US climate leadership | President to ‘repeal or replace’ Trump decision removing protections for Tongass | Administration proposes its first offshore wind lease sale MORE (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenMark Cuban: ProPublica ‘not being honest’ about taxes on wealthy On The Money: Bipartisan Senate group rules out tax hikes on infrastructure | New report reignites push for wealth tax New report reignites push for wealth tax MORE (D-Mass.) will “firebomb the package because it doesn’t give them what they want.”

Progressives in the Senate and House have been ramping up calls to drop negotiations with Republicans and move forward with the reconciliation package.

The lawmaker, who requested anonymity to discuss a private meeting, said McConnell told negotiators they can disclose that he is interested in seeing progress on a bipartisan deal.

Democrats are expected to try to move a reconciliation package whether they get a bipartisan deal or not.

But McConnell’s calculation is that if there is a bipartisan bill passed, Democrats will have a tougher time getting votes for the reconciliation package.

“McConnell’s strategy is divide and conquer. He wants to drive a wedge between Biden and progressive Democrats and he knows if he can do that, one, he creates big problems for Biden, and, two, he limits Biden’s ability to pass transformative legislation,” said Darrell West, director of governance studies at the left-leaning Brookings Institution.

The early indication from the White House is that Biden and his senior staff don’t like some of the bipartisan group’s proposals for paying for their spending plan, such as adjusting the gas tax to inflation and requiring a mileage fee for electric vehicles.

That may be enough of an excuse for Biden to come out against the bipartisan framework, or simply withhold his support.

Shooting down the bipartisan proposal would make it more likely Democrats move only one infrastructure package this year, which would be welcome news to progressive Democrats.

Progressives such as Sanders, Warren, Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseySenate filibuster fight throws Democrats’ wish list into limbo Parliamentarian changes Senate calculus for Biden agenda Top union unveils national town hall strategy to push Biden’s jobs plan MORE (D-Pa.) and Sen. Sheldon WhitehouseSheldon WhitehouseOn The Money: Democrats wary of emerging bipartisan infrastructure deal, warn of time crunch Democrats wary of emerging bipartisan infrastructure deal The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – Biden mission abroad: reward friends, constrain adversaries MORE (D-R.I.) want hundreds of billions of dollars for expanded child care, universal pre-kindergarten and long-term home health care, as well as authority for the government to negotiate lower prescription drug prices and new incentives for clean energy production.

They think those proposals stand a better chance of becoming law if combined with traditional infrastructure in the reconciliation package.

Progressives worry that passing a scaled-down package focused on core, physical infrastructure with Republican votes in the summer or early fall will diminish the appetite within their party for passing the rest of Biden’s social infrastructure agenda.

“The trillions are starting to add up. Each trillion in new expenditure makes it more difficult to do anything else,” West said. “It just becomes harder to keep Democrats on the same page.”

A few centrist Democrats are raising concerns about a recent uptick in inflation, which Larry Summers, who served as director of former President Obama’s National Economic Council, warns could get worse if the federal government keeps spending.  

“We are printing money, we are creating government bonds, we are borrowing on unprecedented scales,” Summers warned. “Those things that surely create more of a risk for a sharp dollar decline than we had before. And sharp dollar declines are much more likely to translate themselves into inflation than they were historically.”

McConnell has seized on Summers’s warnings to further split Democrats.

“One survey just found that more than 80 percent of American families are tightening their household budgets because of the threat of inflation,” the GOP leader said on the Senate floor Wednesday.

“No wonder Larry Summers says he’s concerned that these proposals are, quote, ‘substantially excessive … way overdoing the requisite response,’ he said.  

Key Democratic moderates, including senators who signed their names this week to the bipartisan infrastructure framework, are paying more attention to inflation.

“It’s concerning,” said Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinMaher goes after Manchin: ‘Most powerful Republican in the Senate’ It’s not just Manchin: No electoral mandate stalls Democrats’ leftist agenda Progressives want to tighten screws beyond Manchin and Sinema MORE (D-W.Va.) in response to a report Thursday that the consumer price index for May had risen 5 percent compared to a year ago.

“It’s challenging, it makes it hard on the average person out there trying to make it,” Manchin said.  

Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterProgressives want to tighten screws beyond Manchin and Sinema Antsy Democrats warn of infrastructure time crunch Bipartisan Senate group announces infrastructure deal MORE (D-Mont.), another signatory to the bipartisan deal, says that fast-rising lumber prices is a major issue in his home state.

The other Democrats backing the new bipartisan infrastructure deal are Sens. Jeanne ShaheenCynthia (Jeanne) Jeanne ShaheenProgressives want to tighten screws beyond Manchin and Sinema Overnight Defense: Pentagon details military construction projects getting .2B restored from wall funds | Biden chooses former commander to lead Navy | Bill seeks to boost visa program for Afghans who helped US Senate bill would add visas, remove hurdles to program for Afghans who helped US MORE (N.H.), Mark WarnerMark Robert WarnerWhite House briefed on bipartisan infrastructure deal but says questions remain Bipartisan Senate group announces infrastructure deal ‘The era of bipartisanship is over’: Senate hits rough patch MORE (Va.) and Kyrsten SinemaKyrsten SinemaProgressives want to tighten screws beyond Manchin and Sinema Why the Democrats need Joe Manchin Simmering Democratic tensions show signs of boiling over MORE (Ariz.).

Republican strategist Vin Weber said moderate Democrats may be having second thoughts about passing all of Biden’s $4.1 trillion infrastructure agenda after polls show the president’s approval rating didn’t get much of a boost from the passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Package, which didn’t get a single Republican vote in either chamber.

“He did exactly what he wanted for a hundred days and it didn’t help his standing. So if you’re a Democrat looking at the thing, you’re thinking, ‘Maybe we better be careful about how aggressive we get because maybe don’t have the mandate that we thought we had in the wake of those two Georgia Senate wins,’ ” he said, referring to the two Democratic upset victories in the January Senate runoff elections in Georgia, which gave Democrats the Senate majority.

Biden’s job approval rating stood at 54 percent in mid-May, according to Gallup. While that was 15 points better than where President TrumpDonald TrumpEx-DOJ official Rosenstein says he was not aware of subpoena targeting Democrats: report Ex-Biden adviser says Birx told him she hoped election turned out ‘a certain way’ Cheney rips Arizona election audit: ‘It is an effort to subvert democracy’ MORE was at the same point in his presidency, it was 11 points lower than where President Obama stood in May 2009.

The average approval rating as measured by Gallup for U.S. presidents after their first four months in office is 53 percent. The average goes back to 1938.

“I don’t if the Democrats are divided yet but I bet there are a whole lot of them that are really having second thoughts about the aggressiveness of the Biden fiscal agenda,” Weber said.