Worker filings for initial unemployment benefits have in recent weeks dropped closer to what economists consider a normal range as they have reached fresh pandemic lows, a sign Covid-19’s impact on the labor market is continuing to recede as employers shed fewer workers.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 12 are projected to decline to a new pandemic low of 360,000, from 376,000 for the week earlier, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The estimated decline comes as Covid-19 restrictions continue to wane. California, the state with the largest population, fully reopened its economy Tuesday.
The steady recent decline in jobless claims is bringing weekly totals closer to what would indicate a more typical labor market. The long-term average of initial jobless claims dating back to 1967—including periods of expansion and recession—is 371,763, according to Labor Department data. The four-week moving average for the week ended June 5 was 402,500.
Adam Kamins, director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, said he thinks the normal range is lower, between 200,000 and 250,000, without factoring in recessions.
“More and more consumer-facing industries that were decimated by the pandemic are coming back online,” Mr. Kamins said. He added that in his view a level in the low to mid 200,000s “would be the indicator that we’ve leveled off.”
