The Conservatives remain on course to win a parliamentary majority at Thursday’s general election, according to a major new poll – but their predicted margin of victory has been halved in the past fortnight.
Labour and Liberal Democrat gains have eaten into the Tories’ majority, according to the poll of more than 100,000 voters that came closest to predicting the 2017 result.
The Conservatives are set to win 339 seats, with Labour on 231, the Lib Dems on 15, the SNP on 41, and the Brexit Party empty-handed, YouGov’s MRP poll for The Times forecasts.
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But the level of variation in the poll suggests the Tories could secure as many as 367 seats, or as few as 311, leading YouGov’s director of political research Anthony Wells to conclude: “Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament.”
The sophisticated polling model uses more than 100,000 voter interviews over a seven-day period, combined with analysis of key demographics, past voting behaviour and other metrics to guess the likelihood of a person voting for a particular party.
The new verdict suggests a considerable shift in voting intention since the most recent MRP poll on 27 November, which saw the Tories barrelling towards a 68-seat majority and Labour heading for a disastrous 211 seats.
YouGov’s MRP poll was alone in correctly forecasting that Theresa May would lose her majority, calculating her party would win 310 seats. This turned out to be just seven short of the reality, with the poll correctly calling the result in 93 per cent of the country.
However, in what is arguably the least predictable election in modern history, voter intentions are changing daily, casting some doubt over the week-long snapshot.
Expectations of widespread tactical voting are a further hindrance to nationwide polls, with another YouGov survey on Tuesday suggesting one in five voters intend to do so.
“The margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament,” said YouGov’s political research manager, Chris Curtis.
“As things currently stand, there are 85 seats with a margin of error of five per cent or less.”
If the predicted result materialises, it would hand the PM the largest Tory majority since the Eighties, topping John Major’s 21-seat margin of Commons control in 1992.
For Labour, the prediction of winning 231 seats would be its worst result for more than 30 years, according to YouGov.
The result will be a worry to Mr Johnson as each party prepares for a final blitz across the country in the final full day of the campaign, with Tory gains from Labour reduced from 44 to 29 since the MRP poll a fortnight ago.
Labour appear to be “patching the cracks” in its so-called “red wall” of seats across the North and the Midlands, YouGov said, but the Tories are still predicted to commandeer seats such as Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, Wrexham and Great Grimsby.
