Boris Johnson deserves to be celebrating this morning. His gamble has paid off.
But the Conservatives should enjoy this moment, as it’s unlikely to happen again for many years. In the long run, this result could backfire on them spectacularly.
Within moments of the exit poll being announced, war had broken out within Labour about whether their disastrous results were down to Brexit or Corbyn. That fight will continue for some time.
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But Johnson’s thumping majority means this parliament will run for its full five years, and by the next election, Labour is unlikely to be in the same state of turmoil. In the meantime, the Tories risk creating an army of opponents that will wipe them out in large parts of the country for years – and it’s all down to a three-word soundbite.
It’s no surprise that the Conservatives fought this campaign with a pithy phrase. Theresa May’s “strong and stable” might have fallen flat, but that was more down to its automaton messenger than the message itself. “Get Brexit done”, on the other hand, spoke to legions of exhausted Leavers and indeed many Remainers.
But a simple slogan simple doesn’t mean a simple policy, and it will soon become clear that Brexit won’t simply “get done” over the next few months; it is going to take years. The distinction between completing a withdrawal agreement and leaving the EU might be boring, but the “just get on with it” camp are soon going to realise just how important it is.
Looking at the remarkable results in Labour heartlands last night, it’s clear many voted in a way they had never before dreamt of doing. People in places such as Bishop Auckland, Bolsover and Burnley who detest everything the Conservatives stand for, who held their noses in the polling booth. These people are going to be furious when they realise they have been sold a dummy; that they were conned into breaking the habit of a lifetime on the basis of another Brexit lie. At that point, their hatred of the Tories will know no bounds.
There is precedent for this. In 1992, Neil Kinnock’s Labour were tipped to beat John Major’s Conservatives, but Major unexpectedly won with a majority of 21. It was considered a Lazarus-style victory.
Yet it all fell to pieces very quickly. The Maastricht debate was a forerunner of today’s Brexit civil war within the Tory party. Major got the bill through only via a confidence vote. MPs were stripped of the party whip. Like Theresa May a year ago, Major had to stand in an internal leadership election while he was PM in a bid to reassert his authority.
Labour, on the other hand, replaced Kinnock with John Smith, then sat back and watched the Tories implode. After Smith died in 1994, Tony Blair assumed the leadership and led the party to a crushing victory three years later. That was it for the Tories. Having held power since 1979, there would be no majority Tory government until 2015.
Had the Conservatives lost in 1992, it would all have been very different. Maastricht would have been Labour’s problem. The Tories would have been the smug spectators as Labour tore itself to pieces. Smith wouldn’t have replaced Kinnock, so his untimely death wouldn’t have led to Blair becoming leader. The 1997 election could have seen a reinvigorated Conservative party take on an incompetent Kinnock. Losing in 1992 would have been better for the Tories in the long run.
The analogy is an imperfect one. Johnson has a huge majority where Major didn’t, and won’t face a leadership challenge over the next five years. Even if there are rebels, stripping a few of them of the whip won’t make a material difference to the parliamentary arithmetic.
But as Major found out the hard way, an awful lot can change over five years. By the time 2024 rolls around, Brexit will still not be done, and Johnson will be facing a tidal wave of opposition that could wipe out the Tories for years to come.
The Tories should savour these results – this might be an election they will wish they’d lost.
