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Novak Djokovic (-325) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (+240) Total: 37.5
Court Philippe-Chartier will be blessed with incredible tennis for a third straight day when Djokovic and Tsitsipas enter into a highly-anticipated Men’s Singles Final off the back of marathon wins in the semis, but like Friday’s semis, I don’t think the oddsmakers have gotten this line right.
As I pointed out on Friday, Djokovic was mispriced against Nadal, at nearly the same odds that Tsitsipas currently has to win the event. I’d make this Final much more closely, considering how the Greek continues to get closer and closer to winning his maiden Grand Slam.
Tsitsipas has been sublime with his serve, landing 70% against Alex Zverev and winning 75% of points behind his first serve. He’s also brought an extraordinary amount of points to the net, where he’s made a mark on this tournament. While Djokovic does just about everything well, his net play left a lot to be desired on Friday, and it was surprising considering how motivated he seemed to bring Nadal in all match long.
One of the big factors here, to me, will be fatigue. Tsitsipas had lost just one set before his five-set semifinal, which only lasted 3:37. I say that, because despite only playing four sets against Nadal, Djokovic’s triumph took 4:11. A big reason was that 56% of the rallies went more than four shots, compared to the 53.9% of the points in the Tsitsipas-Zverev match which went under four shots.
Tsitsipas has had arguably the best year on tour, and has gone 22-3 on the clay with two narrow losses to Djokovic and Nadal which went the distance. He’s on the precipice of greatness, continuing to inch closer and closer to his maiden Grand Slam with some of these regular-season battles. He should play fearless tennis here, having beaten Djokovic before and having won a Masters 1000 and beaten Rafael Nadal on clay.
I think Tsitsipas will be the fresher of the two, and his play at the net in chorus with his exceptional serving should bring him at least a set away from winning. That’s why I love the game spread here, and will also be taking him to emerge victorious outright on the moneyline.
Edge: Tsitsipas +4.5 Games, Tsitsipas +240 (0.5u)
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