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At 60: omens not good at all

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Malaysia and Singapore are just three and one year respectively older than Nigeria, having been colonised, like Nigeria, by Britain. But today, both countries have far outpaced Nigeria, turned their countries into a showpiece, established multiracial societies, virtually resolved their national questions, and are moving determinedly into the future. The difference between those two countries and Nigeria is principally one of leadership. Some 19 years after Nigeria became independent, and 30 years after gyrating between the past and the future, China finally and purposefully embraced a new leader who propounded a new leadership and developmental paradigm. In less than 20 years after Deng Xiaoping caused China to change course, China was well and truly on the way to transforming into a 21st century country. Forty years after, China has become a major challenge not only to the Western world, but to the rest of the world.

On the contrary, 60 years after independence, and after many gaps and hiatuses, insensitive and predatory military governments, and incompetent elected governments, Nigeria has regressed very badly to a failing state, destroyed its economy which is anchored on ad hoc and contradictory paradigms, overthrown its independence and inchoate federal constitution, and replaced it with a constitution that pretends to be federal, but is in reality unitary. They have also promoted and elected incompetent rulers who have no clue how to run an inclusive and modern government or design a great and working economy, and have preoccupied themselves with advancing primordial cleavages while unashamedly sponsoring ethnic and religious exceptionalism. In the past one decade and more, particularly the last few years, the decay has been comprehensive and total. Few Nigerians now have hope that positive change can indeed happen in their lifetime.

Constitution review exercises have been attempted at least four times since the 1990s, while efforts to entrench a totally restructured political environment has been vigorously resisted. The economy has not changed in structure but got more anaemic, now obviously binging on loans and mortgaging the future of coming generations, and no one is thinking of re-engineering the society, let alone envisioning a great future. None of the past presidents since the dawn of the Fourth Republic has had the vision to attempt a definitive and soul-stirring change. They have either been one miserable and anachronistic shade or the other of conservatism, or one extremely faint hue or the oother of discarded progressivism.

It is in the midst of this crippling and disastrous retrogression that the government is building an unproductive, nearly $2bn railway line to Maradi, the second largest city (over 250,000 pop) in Niger Republic. Founded by Hausa kings, and was therefore a part of the Hausa States under the control of Katsina, Maradi is more than 80 percent Hausa. But building rail tracks to that economic capital of Niger Republic is both indefensible and reckless. Nigeria is already hugely indebted, and has not even linked high population density cities and states in Nigeria to the rail grid. It is a reflection of the insularity of Nigerian rulers that reason and availability of funds do not determine the location of industries, educational institutions, and economic projects. Worse, it is also a reflection of Nigeria’s poor leadership that little thought is spared for projects and programmes that unite and bind the country together. Indeed, despite the face-saving explanation of presidential spokesman, Garba Shehu, President Buhari continues to come across to many people as unaware of his Nigerian citizenship.

Few Nigerians still hold out hope that Nigeria at 60 can guarantee peace and stability for its citizens. The country has become a huge bastion of insecurity. Nigerians were not impressed with the achievements of ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, but they acknowledge that he was not as divisive and narrow as President Buhari who has been accused of designing and promoting policies such as the Rural Grazing Area (RUGA) and legislations such as the nefarious Water Resources Bill to favour herdsmen. Both the Water Resources minister and Information minister Lai Mohammed have attempted unconvincing and ludicrous explanations to justify the president’s unapologetic tilt towards one section of the country. Indeed, they wonder whether the president appreciates just how his actions and policies have divided Nigeria. Nigerians note how in the past few years, rather than the judiciary getting better and more independent, the Buhari presidency has undermined the third arm of government, castrated judges, and abridged the rule of law, an abridgment connived at by a patronising and insensitive Justice minister. And they also wonder whether the national legislature can indeed stand up to the government’s waywardness.

But beyond the Buhari presidency — and the country must earnestly begin to look beyond 2023 — Nigeria needs to urgently find the right political and economic structures that would unleash its tremendous talents and enormous potential for development. They must also accompany these changes with major societal re-engineering, create structures that will enable them elect the right lawmakers and competent presidents, and find a solution to the widespread insecurity laying the country waste. It is clear that without the right leadership with the competence to scale the limiting factors promoting underdevelopment, Nigeria will be unable to compare with the Asian Tigers or even aspire more profoundly to attain Western standards.

Today, Nigerian democracy is even more imperilled than it has ever been, with the constitutionally guaranteed rights of the people considerably stunted by law enforcement and the secret service. Nigeria is not only moving towards state failure, complete with unviable economic structure and programmes, it is steadily moving towards dictatorship, if not fascism. Much worse, said at least one former Nigerian leader and other respected opinion moulders, Nigeria is now irreparably divided, unviable and at risk of fragmenting. This diamond jubilee should be an opportunity to reflect on the issues that divide the country, many of them inspired and promoted by the leaders themselves, and find ways of bridging them and rebuilding the country. What is not acceptable is to pretend that little or nothing is wrong. There is a whole lot wrong, and the blame for much of it lies squarely with the leaders.

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